Kenya to run out of HIV supplies from May

Kenya to run out of HIV supplies from May

Kenya is on the brink of an HIV treatment crisis, with antiretroviral (ARV) supplies expected to run out by May 2025. A recent government assessment reveals that stocks of key HIV medications, including Tenofovir/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir (TLD), will be critically low. Without immediate intervention, thousands of patients could face treatment disruption.

US Aid Freeze Behind Looming Shortage

The report, compiled by the Council of Governors (CoG), the National Syndemic Diseases Control Council (NSDCC), the National Aids and STIs Control Programme (Nascop), and the Kenya Medical Supplies Authority (Kemsa), highlights the devastating impact of the US aid freeze.

“The HIV response in Kenya is heavily reliant on external funding, with approximately 80% of strategic commodities funded through Overseas Development Assistance. These resources are unpredictable and subject to uncertainties and conditionalities,” the report states.

ARV Stocks Could Be Wiped Out in Six Months

The dwindling stockpile of essential HIV drugs paints a grim picture. TLD supplies will drop from 4.9 months in January to less than a month’s supply by May. Other crucial drugs, such as Tenofovir Alafenamide/Lamivudine/Dolutegravir (TAF/3TC/DTG) and Dolutegravir (DTG) 50mg, will also be significantly affected. Laboratory reagents for viral load testing could be completely depleted, hampering treatment monitoring.

Khatra Ali, a board member at NSDCC and Director of Health at the CoG, confirmed the crisis. “The supplies we have will last us for just six months. People want to keep stock because they don’t want to find themselves in a mess,” she stated.

Government Urged to Act Fast

CoG and health officials are calling on the government to engage the Global Fund to release promised HIV drugs ahead of schedule. Kenya has over 1.3 million people living with HIV, including 71,433 children, who rely on ARVs for survival.

“The forecasting and quantification report for the financial year 2024/2025 estimates the total cost of HIV commodities at Sh28 billion,” the report notes. Currently, the funding sources are:

• Global Fund: $47.4 million (23.3%)
• PEPFAR: $58.7 million (28.8%)
• Government of Kenya: 20%
• Funding Gap: $72.2 million (35.4%)

Essential Drugs Stuck in Procurement

PEPFAR allocated $58.7 million (Sh7.8 billion) to Kenya for HIV-related health products in 2024/2025. However, at the time of the report, no deliveries had reached health facilities.

Laboratory commodities, including Abbott Alinity Viral Load Kits and Roche Viral Load Tests, could be wiped out by May. These are crucial for monitoring viral load suppression in HIV patients, a key treatment success indicator.

Proposed Solutions to Avert Disaster

The report suggests urgent measures to prevent a full-blown public health crisis:

• Fast-tracking procurement of three million ARV packs from the Global Fund before May 2025.
• Kemsa expediting delivery of 150,000 ARV doses bought by the Kenyan government, scheduled for June.
• Allocating Sh8.7 billion immediately to prevent stock-outs.
• Temporarily taking over ARV distribution from the Mission for Essential Drugs and Supplies (MEDS) at a cost of Sh1.2 billion.
• Finding alternative funding to support lab reagent procurement.

HIV Gains Under Threat

Experts warn that failing to act swiftly could reverse the progress made in Kenya’s fight against HIV/AIDS. UNAIDS has already raised concerns, ranking Kenya as the tenth most dependent country on US HIV funding.

CoG, NSDCC, Kemsa, and Nascop insist that urgent government action is critical to protect the lives of millions relying on HIV medication.

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Kenya to run out of HIV supplies from May