Experts Warn of Prolonged Dry Spell Ahead of El Niño Rains

Experts Warn of Prolonged Dry Spell Ahead of El Niño Rains

Kenyans in parts of the Rift Valley, Western Kenya and Nyanza have been warned to prepare for a prolonged dry spell before the expected El Niño rains begin.

Weather expert Maithya Vilivu said sinking air was currently limiting rainfall in several parts of the country. The conditions are expected to continue in the coming days.

“It will take a change of seasons for things to get any better.”

Vilivu said the dry weather was mainly affecting the Rift Valley, Western Kenya and parts of Nyanza. The situation could persist until there is a significant change in the prevailing weather pattern.

However, the weather outlook is different along the Kenyan Coast and parts of southern Somalia.

Stronger south-easterly trade winds are expected to push moisture inland from the Indian Ocean, increasing rainfall from the weekend into next week.

Some of the moisture could also reach the windward areas of the Central Highlands and parts of Eastern Kenya, bringing showers to those regions.

The short-term weather forecast comes as Kenya prepares for the October-December 2026 short rains.

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has forecast above-average rainfall across much of the country during the season.

According to the latest OND 2026 forecast, some parts of Western Kenya could start receiving rainfall as early as September.

The areas include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Kisumu and Kisii.

Other parts of the country will have to wait longer for the rains.

The Central Highlands, Nairobi, the Coast and parts of North Eastern Kenya are expected to experience the onset of rainfall between the second and third weeks of October.

Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado and Taita-Taveta are expected to receive the rains between the third and fourth weeks of October.

Turkana and Samburu are also expected to experience the onset around the same period.

Kenya’s El Niño Rainfall Forecast

Kenya Met expects the October-December rains to be fairly to well distributed across most parts of the country.

However, rainfall distribution in Turkana and Samburu could range from poor to fair.

The weather agency has also warned of prolonged wet spells and isolated storms during the season.

The forecast has raised concerns about possible flooding, particularly in areas that are already vulnerable to heavy rainfall.

The strengthening 2026 El Niño is expected to play a major role in determining rainfall patterns across Kenya.

Kenya Met said the phenomenon could increase rainfall during the OND season, especially if the Indian Ocean Dipole develops into the positive phase that has been forecast.

Other weather systems could also affect rainfall intensity and timing.

These include tropical cyclones and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can influence moisture levels and rainfall across the region.

For Kenyans, the forecast points to a season of contrasting weather conditions.

Some areas could remain dry in the short term, while others may begin receiving increased rainfall before the main October-December season starts.

Farmers are therefore expected to monitor official weather updates when planning planting and other agricultural activities.

Residents in flood-prone areas should also remain alert as the rainy season approaches.

The latest forecast highlights the importance of preparing for both dry conditions and possible heavy rainfall as Kenya moves toward the 2026 El Niño season.

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Experts Warn of Prolonged Dry Spell Ahead of El Niño Rains