WMO Gives Nearly 100% Chance of El Niño Persisting Into February 2027

WMO Gives Nearly 100% Chance of El Niño Persisting Into February 2027

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has raised its forecast for the persistence of El Niño conditions, warning that the weather pattern has an exceptionally high chance of continuing into February 2027.

The latest forecast places the probability at nearly 100%, a significant increase from the 80% likelihood previously issued by the global weather agency.

The warning comes as countries across Africa and other vulnerable regions prepare for possible extreme weather linked to the strengthening climate phenomenon.

According to WMO’s Global Producing Centres, unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean are driving the latest El Niño outlook.

“Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an ‘exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100% that El Niño will persist through to February 2027,” the WMO stated.

The latest assessment represents a sharp increase from earlier forecasts, which had placed the likelihood of El Niño conditions developing at about 80% during the preceding months.

Forecasters now expect the phenomenon to strengthen further in the coming weeks before potentially reaching a very strong intensity and peaking towards the end of 2026.

El Niño raises extreme weather concerns

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

Its effects can extend far beyond the Pacific region, influencing rainfall patterns, temperatures and the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events in different parts of the world.

The latest warning has heightened concerns among governments, humanitarian organisations and communities that could face flooding, displacement, drought or other climate-related disruptions.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has previously warned that rising global temperatures are increasing the risks associated with extreme weather.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.”

Guterres further warned that rising sea surface temperatures were increasing the risk of extreme weather and called for stronger climate action to protect vulnerable populations.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has also warned that the increasing intensity of climate-related events could place additional pressure on vulnerable communities and economies.

Kenya faces El Niño rainfall concerns

Kenya is among the countries closely monitoring the developing weather situation, particularly because of the potential impact on rainfall patterns across the Greater Horn of Africa.

Earlier forecasts indicated that El Niño conditions could contribute to increased rainfall in parts of Kenya from October 2026.

The anticipated rains have raised concerns over flooding, infrastructure damage, disruption of transport and displacement, particularly in areas already vulnerable to extreme weather.

A report by the Danish Refugee Council has warned that as many as 1.03 million Kenyans could potentially be displaced by El Niño-related rains, highlighting the scale of the humanitarian risks if severe flooding occurs.

However, the actual impact will depend on the intensity and geographical distribution of rainfall, as well as the preparedness of national and local authorities.

The latest WMO forecast is therefore expected to prompt increased monitoring and preparedness across countries likely to experience significant weather changes.

For Kenya, farmers, businesses and households in flood-prone areas are likely to remain particularly attentive to official weather updates as the October-December rainfall season approaches.

With WMO now placing the likelihood of El Niño persisting into February 2027 at nearly 100%, authorities are expected to strengthen preparedness measures as scientists continue monitoring ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

The forecast does not mean every region will experience extreme weather, but it signals a prolonged period of heightened climate risk requiring close monitoring and early preparation.

ALSO READ:  WMO Gives Nearly 100% Chance of El Niño Persisting Into February 2027

WMO Gives Nearly 100% Chance of El Niño Persisting Into February 2027