CBK Warns Food Prices Could Rise as Poor Rains Threaten Maize Harvest

CBK Warns Food Prices Could Rise as Poor Rains Threaten Maize Harvest

Kenyans could face renewed pressure on food prices as poor rainfall in key agricultural regions threatens crop production, with the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) warning that weather-related supply risks could push inflation higher.

The warning is contained in the latest CBK Agriculture Sector Survey, which examined food production, prices and inflation expectations across the country.

The survey showed mixed expectations for food prices over the coming month. While some staple foods are expected to become cheaper, several other food products could record price increases.

Potatoes recorded the strongest expectation of a price rise. Traditional vegetables, peas, spinach and fresh unpacketed milk were also among the commodities expected to become more expensive.

On the other hand, respondents expected prices of tomatoes, onions, carrots, maize grain and maize flour to decline.

“Overall, the July 2026 survey points to a modest increase in near-term inflation expectations, mainly reflecting emerging supply-side risks.”

Poor Rainfall Threatens Maize Production

CBK said poor rainfall in key agricultural regions was emerging as a major concern for food production.

The survey showed that expectations for maize production remained weak, with the balance of opinion standing at only 2%.

Respondents linked the subdued outlook to depressed rainfall in major maize-growing areas, particularly parts of the North Rift and Western Kenya.

The North Rift is one of Kenya’s main food-producing regions, making weather conditions there important to the country’s maize supply and food prices.

CBK also reported negative production expectations for several other crops.

These included rice, millet, wheat, onions, beans and potatoes.

A decline in production could reduce food supplies and increase pressure on prices if demand remains strong.

Inflation Expectations Rise

The concerns over agricultural production are already reflected in rising inflation expectations among survey respondents.

The survey found that 56.9% of respondents expected inflation to increase over the next month.

This was an increase from 47.9% recorded in the June survey.

Expectations were also higher over a three-month period.

About 57.5% of respondents expected inflation to rise over the next three months, compared with 48.5% in the previous survey.

CBK said the changing expectations were linked largely to emerging risks affecting food supply.

Weather Remains Biggest Food Price Risk

Weather conditions emerged as the biggest factor expected to influence food prices.

About 94% of respondents identified rainfall and other weather patterns as key factors affecting food prices.

Transport costs followed closely, with 93% of respondents identifying them as a major influence.

Labour costs were cited by 71% of respondents, while 62% pointed to the cost of agricultural inputs.

The survey also highlighted the impact of international geopolitical tensions on local prices.

About 72% of respondents said they had observed the effects of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on retail prices.

The impact was mainly linked to higher oil prices and disruptions to global supply chains, which can increase transportation and production costs.

Farmers Seek More Government Support

Farmers surveyed called for additional support to protect agricultural production and improve food security.

Their proposals included increased access to irrigation pumps, generators and piping networks to reduce dependence on rainfall.

Farmers also called for higher agricultural subsidies, better feeder roads and stronger agricultural extension services.

Lower fuel costs were also identified as important in reducing the cost of farming and transporting agricultural produce.

The CBK findings come as Kenya continues to monitor food prices and inflation amid changing weather conditions.

While maize grain and maize flour prices are currently expected to ease, the broader outlook remains uncertain.

Poor rainfall, rising transport costs and expensive agricultural inputs could affect production and food availability in the coming months.

CBK’s latest survey therefore points to the need for close monitoring of weather conditions and agricultural output as Kenya prepares for possible changes in food prices and inflation.

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CBK Warns Food Prices Could Rise as Poor Rains Threaten Maize Harvest