EPRA Warns of More Fuel Price Hikes if Middle East Conflict Escalates

EPRA Warns of More Fuel Price Hikes if Middle East Conflict Escalates

Kenyans could face further fuel price increases if the conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global petroleum supplies, Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) Director-General Edward Mwirigi has warned.

Mwirigi issued the warning on Thursday, October 15, while appearing before the Special Funds Accounts Committee, where lawmakers questioned the authority over the latest increase in petrol, diesel and kerosene prices.

The EPRA chief attributed the sharp rise announced on Wednesday, October 14, to supply disruptions in the Gulf region, saying attacks on petroleum infrastructure and vessels had increased the cost of importing fuel into Kenya.

His remarks raised concerns about the possibility of additional increases in the coming months if international supply chains remain unstable.

EPRA Explains Why Fuel Prices Increased

Under the latest review, Nairobi motorists will pay KSh226.96 per litre of petrol, KSh227.76 for diesel and KSh219.87 for kerosene.

The increases have placed additional pressure on households, transport operators and businesses that depend on fuel to move people and goods.

Mwirigi told MPs that attacks on fuel infrastructure and vessels had forced importers to seek alternative sources of petroleum products, including Singapore, where supplies were reportedly more expensive.

The higher import costs have contributed to the increase in local pump prices, highlighting Kenya’s exposure to fluctuations in the international oil market.

On Wednesday, the EPRA director-general described September as an especially difficult month for fuel prices, citing the impact of the ongoing conflict.

“September has been the worst month ever since this war broke out. Super petrol has reached USD 1,300 per metric tonne from the initial USD $600 per metric tonne,” Mwirigi told journalists on Wednesday, October 14.

The increase in international petroleum product prices has intensified concerns about the cost of fuel imports and the pressure these costs could place on consumers.

MPs Question Government’s Fuel Price Position

During the committee session, lawmakers questioned why pump prices had risen despite President William Ruto’s assurances in May 2026 that fuel prices would remain stabilised.

MPs also sought clarification on whether Kenyans had been adequately informed about supply disruptions, including reports that two fuel vessels had been bombed.

Mwirigi told the committee that Saudi vessels had been targeted and maintained that Kenya’s fuel prices remained competitive compared with those in neighbouring countries.

However, his warning suggested that the domestic market could remain vulnerable to further international shocks.

The latest developments have renewed debate about how the government can protect consumers from volatile global energy prices while maintaining reliable fuel supplies.

Parliament Extends Reduced Fuel VAT Rate

Amid the rising prices, the National Assembly passed the Tax Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2026, seeking to retain the reduced 8% Value Added Tax (VAT) rate on petrol, diesel and kerosene for another three months.

The proposal, sponsored by National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung’wah, aims to prevent the VAT rate from reverting to the standard 16%.

Maintaining the reduced rate is intended to cushion consumers against additional costs, although it does not prevent pump prices from rising when international petroleum prices and importation expenses increase.

The impact of the measure will depend partly on how global oil prices and supply conditions develop.

Matatu Operators Consider Fare Increases

The latest fuel price review has also raised concerns about public transport costs.

Matatu industry stakeholders have signalled that fares could increase by up to 10% following the adjustment, potentially adding to the cost of commuting for millions of Kenyans.

Higher transport costs could also affect the prices of food and other essential goods because fuel is a major expense in distribution and logistics.

For motorists and businesses, the immediate concern is whether international supply disruptions will ease before the next fuel price review.

EPRA’s warning indicates that further increases remain possible if the Middle East conflict escalates and continues to drive up petroleum import costs.

Kenyans will therefore be watching developments in global oil markets and the authority’s next pricing announcement for signs of relief.

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EPRA Warns of More Fuel Price Hikes if Middle East Conflict Escalates